(no subject)

[usernamenumber]

Hey flistpeoples!

I'm trying to gage the wisdom of attending an event that would involve driving back from Pepperell tonight at 11ish pm. The forecast is saying 32mph (which is higher than the last time I looked) plus thunderstorms.

I don't really have a good frame of reference, though. At what point, MPH-wise, do conditions become genuinely unsafe? Opinions on how worried I should be about this?

Comments

[rigel.livejournal.com]

This is what Weather Undergound said most recently about the flash flood and high wind warnings. It was compiled as of 2:09pm today.

Winds: Sustained south winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected to rapidly shift east and increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph between 7 and 10 PM tonight. The strongest winds will be mainly between 10 PM and 3 am. The wind should shift to the north and start to decrease between 4 and 6 am.

Flooding: At this time the highest risk for significant urban flooding will be along and northwest of a Boston to Providence line . . . total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is forecast with a few isolated 8 inch reports possible . . . Most of this rain is expected to fall in just 6 hours tonight! The torrential rainfall will bring the potential for significant urban flooding. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Much of this rain is expected to fall during the nighttime. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flash floods. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. Stay away from streams and openings to drainage pipes.

Both the rain and the wind have been deemed notable enough to involve issuing warnings, at least, though what that means can vary. My memory of Pepperell was that it was in the proverbial middle of nowhere, and that might mean more trouble draining water, muddier roads, and downed tree branches. That, and no real light, seems pretty dangerous to me.

[bleemoo.livejournal.com]

I am very reluctant to drive in that, and am almost certainly not going. I was nervous enough when it said sustained 20mph winds.

[bkdelong.livejournal.com]

The height of the wind is allegedly due to hit around 11pm.

[metahacker.livejournal.com]

Drive safe.

What kind of sail, I mean, car, do you drive? Low profile helps. Minivans suck.

Cross winds are what get you. Cross winds are especially surprising on open highways (like Rte 2 near Lexington), or where you cross a suddenly-open area (like a bridge over a river). Watch for your car veering sideways in your lane. Leave escape routes on both sides.

Be smart about visibility and speed. Don't go too slow, though.

Puddles Of Indeterminate Depth (POIDs)? They do exist. Crossing running water is a bad idea unless you really know how deep it is (like you drive that road all the time and paid attention to elevation).

30 mph winds I would totally drive in, but I'm cocky, have a good (low-slung) car, and think I know how to drive well. I probably wouldn't do it on the bike, though I have survived 30-40 mph crosswinds on it. (The winds made a nice lane change for me. Luckily there was no one there. The handlebars never moved during this bit!)

[usernamenumber.livejournal.com]

It's an '03 Prius, so it's pretty low. rigel has raised a concern about flash floods, downed trees and whatnot on the route between here and Pepperell, which I'm not very familiar with. Do you know anything about it?

More useless advice

[metahacker.livejournal.com]

Those are concerns, but I would say only if you get stupid. Those videos of people you see with their cars washing away? They drove out into 4"+ deep water, or water roaring by with dirt in it, and then panicked and stopped halfway. Or drove into 3' of water and had their car die. (Or were caught by failing dams, etc., but that sounds less likely...)

Fallen trees? Stick to major roads, where other cars / cops are likely to see them first. Don't out-drive your headlights. Be alert. Keep calm. If people are hitting their brakes ahead of you, slow down pre-emptively.

Flash floods? Be aware of water depth on the road. I have no idea how much water the Prius can handle (i.e. what its clearance is like) but every car I've driven has been able to handle 4" of standing water with no issues, and I've seen people drive (at a walking speed) through water up to the bottoms of their doors many times. If it's moving, that's different; if it's moving fast enough that it's carrying silt, that's another warning sign.

I don't know Pepperell, but it looks like you have maybe 5-10 minutes of back roads before you can get to reasonable roads. On your way out, take note of depressions and valleys that might flood and see if you can find ways around them for the return trip. Google Maps Terrain is proving fun for me, for this, right now.